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41.
42.
Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Gordon Woo 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):87-97
One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around
a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible
human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing
these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework.
It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives
to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have
been estimated. 相似文献
43.
Seungshic Yum Seonock Woo Man Chang Taek-Kyun Lee Jun-Im Song 《Ocean Science Journal》2005,40(1):55-59
We cloned the complete cDNA of the β-tubulin from the soft coral,Scleronephthya gracillimum (Kükenthal) (Alcyonacea, Octocorallia, Anthozoa, Cnidaria), via the random sequencing of a cDNA library and the 5′-rapid
amplification of cDNA end (RACE) technique. The full-length cDNA of theS. gracillimum β-tubulin comprised 1541 bp, not including the poly (A)+ stretch, also contained a complete open reading frame, which codes for a total of 445 amino acids. The amino acid residues
16-402 appeared to be in a state of conservation in a variety of animals. Northern blot analysis clearly demonstrated that
the sequence we have obtained is, indeed, the full-length cDNA of the β-tubulin gene inS. gracillimum. 相似文献
44.
Analytical models for predicting wave reflection from a perforated-wall caisson breakwater have been developed. Most of the existing models deal with the case in which the waves are normally incident to the caisson lying on a flat sea bottom. In the present paper, using the Galerkin-eigenfunction method, an analytical model is developed that can predict the reflection coefficient of a perforatedwall caisson mounted on a rubble mound foundation when waves are obliquely incident to the breakwater at an arbitrary angle. The developed model is compared with other theoretical results and hydraulic experimental data. 相似文献
45.
Records of palaeo‐sea level and eruption duration in a coastal tuff ring,Jeju Island,Korea 下载免费PDF全文
Phreatomagmatic volcanoes and their sedimentary products can preserve high‐resolution records of earth surface processes because of their high deposition rate. Songaksan, Jeju Island, Korea, is a phreatomagmatic volcano, which erupted c. 3.7 ka BP in a coastal setting. Its tuff ring preserves a record of intertidal to supratidal facies transition in the basal part, which reveals the position of palaeo‐high‐tide level for at least 13 high‐tide events, and a record of a storm‐surge event in the middle part of the tuff ring, which lasted approximately three tidal cycles. Based on these features, the phreatomagmatic eruption of Songaksan is estimated to have taken place over a month. The sea level at the time was almost identical to that at present. This study shows that coastal phreatomagmatic volcanoes can preserve high‐resolution records of eruption duration and palaeo‐sea level, and can provide accurately levelled and dated data points to the Quaternary sea‐level curve. 相似文献
46.
A geochemical study was carried out in a small spa area (Onyang Spa, Korea) where intensive pumping of deep thermal groundwater (1 300 000 m3 year−1) is taking place. This has caused the deep fractures to lose their artesian pressure and the upper shallow fractures have been encroached by shallow, cold waters. To quantify the influence of long‐term heavy pumping on the quality of the geothermal water, groundwater sampling and chemical analysis, water‐level measurement, and well loggings were performed for the selected deep thermal wells and shallow cold wells. Chemical analysis results indicate a big contrast in water chemistry and origins between the two water types. Shallow groundwater shows a wider concentration ranges in solutes that are closely related to human activity, illustrating the water's vulnerability to contamination near the land surface. Plots of water chemistry as a function of fluoride reveal that the quality of the thermal water was greatly influenced by the shallow, cold groundwater and that intensive pumping of the deep thermal groundwater has caused the introduction of shallow groundwater into the deeper fractures. Although the deep and the shallow fractures were piezometrically separated to some extent, a mixing model based on fluoride and nitrate indicated that the cold‐water fractions in the thermal wells are up to 50%. This suggests that the thermal water is faced with water quality degradation by the downward flow of the shallow, cold water. Restriction on the total of all the pumpage permits per unit area is suggested to restore the artesian pressure of the deep thermal aquifer and to prevent cold‐water intrusion in the study area. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
47.
Jae Woo Lee Chun-Hwey Kim Robert H. Koch 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(4):1665-1680
We obtained CCD photometric observations of the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei (XX Cep) during 15 nights from 2002 September 17 to 2003 February 2, and also on 2005 January 21. Except for those data taken on the last night of the concentrated observing season, the 3881 measurements were obtained over an interval of only 106 nights. From these data, four new times of minimum light were calculated. The (O− C) diagram formed from all available timings, and thus the orbital period of the system, can be partly represented as a beat effect between two cyclical variations with different periods ( yr, yr) and amplitudes ( K 1 =0.015 d, K 2 =0.103 d) , respectively. Both physical and non-physical interpretations of these cycles were investigated. The long-term sinusoidal variation is too long for magnetic cycling in solar-type single and close binary stars. In addition, we have studied the effect of a possible secular period variation. By analysing the residuals from our Wilson–Devinney (WD) binary model, we found small light variations with a period of 5.99 d with amplitudes growing toward longer wavelengths. We think that these oscillations may be produced by instabilities at the systemic L 1 point (also occupied by the point of the cool star) and that these instabilities are, in turn, caused by non-uniform and sporadic convection. There is also a short-period oscillation of about 45 min in the WD light residuals that is attributed to accretion on to the mass-gaining primary component from a feeble gas stream originating on the cool donor star. 相似文献
48.
To supplement conventional geophysical log data, this study presents temporal variations in electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature with depth in a multilayered coastal aquifer, on the eastern part of Jeju Island, Korea. One‐month time‐series data obtained at eight points from a multi‐depth monitoring system showed that semidiurnal and semimonthly tidal variations induced dynamic fluctuations in EC and temperature. At some depths, EC ranged from 1483 to 26 822 µS cm?1, while some points showed no significant variations. The results of EC log and time‐series data revealed that a sharp fresh‐saltwater interface occurred at low tide, but the diffusion zone broadened to 20 m at high tide. EC, temperature, and tide level data were used for the cross‐correlation analysis. The response time of EC and temperature to tide appears to range from less than 30 min to 11 h. Using end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA), the fraction of variations of chloride concentration in the multilayered aquifer was explained, and a conceptual model was developed which subdivided the coastal aquifer into four vertical zones. The percentage of water derived from seawater varied from 2 to 48 at specific depth, owing to tidal fluctuations. Continuous observations of EC and temperature at multiple depths are powerful tools for quantifying the transport of saline water by tidal variations in multilayered coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
49.
50.
The Soufriere Hills volcano in the south-eastern part of Montserrat erupted pyroclast flows as recently as A. D. 1646 ± 54 years and must therefore be considered dormant, not extinct. The highly destructive nature of pyroclast flow eruptions makes it imperative that such activity should be predicted and, if the threat of eruption becomes sufficiently large, the population should be moved to a sale distance from the volcano. Sharp increases in seismic and solfataric activity occurred in 1966 and these events indicated the abnormally high risk of an eruption in the near future. A network of four short period seismographs was established in the island in May 1966 and between this date and the end of 1967, 723 local earthquakes were recorded, of which 32 were reported felt in the island. Hypocentres were determined for 189 of these earthquakes, and most of these lay in a WNW to ESE belt beneath the Soufriere Hills, at depths of less than 15 km. The average rate of seismic energy release decreased with time throughout the series but there was a strong seasonal variation with maxima in May and November–December of each year. The average depth of the earthquakes decreased from 5.2 km in April and May 1966 to a minimum of 2.8 km from July to September 1966. After September the mean focal depths increased again and by the end of the crisis in November 1967 the mean depth was 9.7 km. Measurements carried out using water-tube tiltmeters showed that the region 2–3 km south-east of the Soufriere Hills was doming upwards until January 1967, then subsided between January–March 1967 and finally rose again at a slower rate between March and September 1967. Heat flow from Galway’s Soufriere which was 3 × 105 cal/sec in 1954 increased to a maximum of 2 × 105 cal/sec in October 1966, then declined to 5 × 105 cal/sec in September 1967. The earthquake series was not the aftershock sequence of any major tectonic earthquake, and only two hypocentres were determined at depths greater than 15 km. It is concluded that magma was intruded into the upper crust beneath the Soufriere Hills volcano and that the earthquakes and other phenomena resulted from the upward migration of this magma. 相似文献